Skills · Business & ops

Market Sizing Analysis

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Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM for market opportunities using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory methodologies. Use this skill when sizing markets, estimating addressable revenue, validating market opportunity for a new venture, or building investor-ready market analysis for a startup pitch or business plan.

Originally by wshobson · MIT

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Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM for market opportunities using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory methodologies. Use this skill when sizing markets, estimating addressable revenue, validating market opportunity for a new venture, or building investor-ready market analysis for a startup pitch or business plan.

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namemarket-sizing-analysis
descriptionCalculate TAM/SAM/SOM for market opportunities using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory methodologies. Use this skill when sizing markets, estimating addressable revenue, validating market opportunity for a new venture, or building investor-ready market analysis for a startup pitch or business plan.
version1.0.0
1---
2name: market-sizing-analysis
3description: Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM for market opportunities using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory methodologies. Use this skill when sizing markets, estimating addressable revenue, validating market opportunity for a new venture, or building investor-ready market analysis for a startup pitch or business plan.
4version: 1.0.0
5---A5No allowed-tools declared — no way to tell what this skill may touch
6 
7# Market Sizing Analysis
8 
9Comprehensive market sizing methodologies for calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for startup opportunities.
10 
11## Overview
12 
13Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and business planning. Calculate market opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment calculations), and value theory (willingness to pay).
14 
15## Core Concepts
16 
17### The Three-Tier Market Framework
18 
19**TAM (Total Addressable Market)**
20 
21- Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share
22- Defines the universe of potential customers
23- Used for long-term vision and market validation
24- Example: All email marketing software revenue globally
25 
26**SAM (Serviceable Available Market)**
27 
28- Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service
29- Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints
30- Represents realistic addressable opportunity
31- Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America
32 
33**SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)**
34 
35- Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years
36- Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics
37- Used for financial projections and fundraising
38- Example: 2-5% of SAM based on competitive landscape
39 
40### When to Use Each Methodology
41 
42**Top-Down Analysis**
43 
44- Use when established market research exists
45- Best for mature, well-defined markets
46- Validates market existence and growth
47- Starts with industry reports and narrows down
48 
49**Bottom-Up Analysis**
50 
51- Use when targeting specific customer segments
52- Best for new or niche markets
53- Most credible for investors
54- Builds from customer data and pricing
55 
56**Value Theory**
57 
58- Use when creating new market categories
59- Best for disruptive innovations
60- Estimates based on value creation
61- Calculates willingness to pay for problem solution
62 
63## Detailed patterns and worked examples
64 
65Detailed pattern documentation lives in `references/details.md`. Read that file when the navigation tier above is insufficient.
66 
67 

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