Estimate Analysis Skill

Estimate Analysis Skill

Deep-dives into analyst estimates and revision trends using Yahoo Finance data via yfinance. Covers EPS and revenue estimate distributions, revision momentum, growth projections, and multi-period comparisons — the full picture of where the street thinks a company is heading.

Important: Data is for research and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. yfinance is not affiliated with Yahoo, Inc.

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Step 1: Ensure yfinance Is Available

Current environment status:

!`python3 -c "exec('try:\n import yfinance\n print(\'yfinance \' + yfinance.__version__ + \' installed\')\nexcept Exception:\n print(\'YFINANCE_NOT_INSTALLED\')')"`

If YFINANCE_NOT_INSTALLED, install it:

import subprocess, sys
subprocess.check_call([sys.executable, "-m", "pip", "install", "-q", "yfinance"])

If already installed, skip to the next step.

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Step 2: Identify the Ticker and Gather Estimate Data

Extract the ticker from the user's request. Fetch all estimate-related data in one script.

import yfinance as yf
import pandas as pd

ticker = yf.Ticker("AAPL")  # replace with actual ticker

# --- Estimate data ---
earnings_est = ticker.earnings_estimate      # EPS estimates by period
revenue_est = ticker.revenue_estimate        # Revenue estimates by period
eps_trend = ticker.eps_trend                 # EPS estimate changes over time
eps_revisions = ticker.eps_revisions         # Up/down revision counts
growth_est = ticker.growth_estimates         # Growth rate estimates

# --- Historical context ---
earnings_hist = ticker.earnings_history      # Track record
info = ticker.info                           # Company basics
quarterly_income = ticker.quarterly_income_stmt  # Recent actuals

What each data source provides

Data Source	What It Shows	Why It Matters
earnings_estimate	Current EPS consensus by period (0q, +1q, 0y, +1y)	The estimate levels — what analysts expect
revenue_estimate	Current revenue consensus by period	Top-line expectations
eps_trend	How the EPS estimate has changed (7d, 30d, 60d, 90d ago)	Revision direction — rising or falling expectations
eps_revisions	Count of upward vs downward revisions (7d, 30d)	Revision breadth — are most analysts raising or cutting?
growth_estimates	Growth rate estimates vs peers and sector	Relative positioning
earnings_history	Actual vs estimated for last 4 quarters	Calibration — how good are these estimates historically?

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Step 3: Route Based on User Intent

The user might want different levels of analysis. Route accordingly:

User Request	Focus Area	Key Sections
General estimate analysis	Full analysis	All sections
"How have estimates changed"	Revision trends	EPS Trend + Revisions
"What are analysts expecting"	Current consensus	Estimate overview
"Growth estimates"	Growth projections	Growth Estimates
"Bull vs bear case"	Estimate range	High/low spread analysis
Compare estimates across periods	Multi-period	Period comparison table

When in doubt, provide the full analysis — more context is better.

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Step 4: Build the Estimate Analysis

Section 1: Estimate Overview

Present the current consensus for all available periods from earnings_estimate and revenue_estimate:

EPS Estimates:

Period	Consensus	Low	High	Range Width	# Analysts	YoY Growth
Current Qtr (0q)	$1.42	$1.35	$1.50	$0.15 (10.6%)	28	+12.7%
Next Qtr (+1q)	$1.58	$1.48	$1.68	$0.20 (12.7%)	25	+8.3%
Current Year (0y)	$6.70	$6.50	$6.95	$0.45 (6.7%)	30	+10.2%
Next Year (+1y)	$7.45	$7.10	$7.85	$0.75 (10.1%)	28	+11.2%

Revenue Estimates:

Period	Consensus	Low	High	# Analysts	YoY Growth
Current Qtr	$94.3B	$92.1B	$96.8B	25	+5.4%
Next Qtr	$102.1B	$99.5B	$105.0B	22	+6.1%

Calculate and flag:

• Range width as % of consensus — wide ranges (>15%) signal high uncertainty
• Analyst coverage — fewer than 5 analysts means thin coverage, note this
• Growth trajectory — is growth accelerating or decelerating across periods?

Section 2: Revision Trends (EPS Trend)

This is often the most actionable section. From eps_trend, show how estimates have moved:

Period	Current	7 Days Ago	30 Days Ago	60 Days Ago	90 Days Ago
Current Qtr	$1.42	$1.41	$1.40	$1.38	$1.35
Next Qtr	$1.58	$1.57	$1.56	$1.55	$1.54
Current Year	$6.70	$6.68	$6.65	$6.58	$6.50
Next Year	$7.45	$7.43	$7.40	$7.35	$7.28

Summarize the trend: "Current quarter EPS estimates have risen 5.2% over the last 90 days, with most of the increase in the last 30 days — accelerating upward revision momentum."

Key interpretation:

• Rising estimates ahead of earnings = positive setup (the bar is rising)
• Falling estimates = analysts cutting numbers, often a negative signal
• Flat estimates = no new information being priced in
• Recent acceleration/deceleration matters more than the total move

Section 3: Revision Breadth (EPS Revisions)

From eps_revisions, show the up vs. down count:

Period	Up (last 7d)	Down (last 7d)	Up (last 30d)	Down (last 30d)
Current Qtr	5	1	12	3
Next Qtr	3	2	8	5

Calculate a revision ratio: Up / (Up + Down). Ratios above 0.7 are strongly bullish; below 0.3 are bearish.

Section 4: Growth Estimates

From growth_estimates, compare the company's expected growth to benchmarks:

Entity	Current Qtr	Next Qtr	Current Year	Next Year	Past 5Y Annual
AAPL	+12.7%	+8.3%	+10.2%	+11.2%	+14.5%
Industry	+9.1%	+7.0%	+8.5%	+9.0%	—
Sector	+11.3%	+8.8%	+10.0%	+10.5%	—
S&P 500	+7.5%	+6.2%	+8.0%	+8.5%	—

Highlight whether the company is expected to grow faster or slower than its peers.

Section 5: Historical Estimate Accuracy

From earnings_history, assess how reliable estimates have been:

Quarter	Estimate	Actual	Surprise %	Direction
Q3 2024	$1.35	$1.40	+3.7%	Beat
Q2 2024	$1.30	$1.33	+2.3%	Beat
Q1 2024	$1.52	$1.53	+0.7%	Beat
Q4 2023	$2.10	$2.18	+3.8%	Beat

Calculate:

• Beat rate: X of 4 quarters
• Average surprise: magnitude and direction
• Trend in surprise: Are beats getting bigger or smaller? A shrinking surprise with rising estimates could mean the bar is catching up to reality.

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Step 5: Synthesize and Respond

Present the analysis with clear structure:

1. Lead with the key insight: "AAPL estimates are trending higher across all periods, with positive revision breadth (80% of recent revisions are upward)."

2. Show the tables for each section the user cares about

3. Provide interpretive context:

   • Is the revision trend confirming or contradicting the stock's recent price action?
   • How does the growth outlook compare to what's priced into the current P/E?
   • What's the relationship between estimate accuracy history and current estimate levels?

4. Flag risks and nuances:

   • Estimates cluster around consensus — the "real" distribution of outcomes is wider than low/high suggests
   • Revision momentum can reverse quickly on a single data point (guidance change, macro event)
   • Yahoo Finance estimates may lag behind real-time consensus providers by hours or days
   • Growth estimates for out-years (+1y) are inherently less reliable

Caveats to always include

• Analyst estimates reflect a consensus view, not certainty
• Estimate revisions are a signal but not a guarantee of future performance
• This is not financial advice

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Reference Files

• references/api_reference.md — Detailed yfinance API reference for all estimate-related methods

Read the reference file when you need exact return formats or edge case handling.